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In mid-February, college basketball odds certainly changed as Baylor passed Gonzaga to top the charts as the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. As of February 18th, Baylor’s odds rose to +250 to win, while Gonzaga was a close second at +275. College basketball “futures” are odds on teams to win the NCAA championship or go to the Final Four. Futures are displayed in “moneyline” form, but don’t expect to see anything close to a “minus” favorite at the sportsbook, at least until the Final Four is booked. They currently have +225 odds to win the ACC basketball tournament and try to get a No. 1 seed going into the NCAA March Madness tourney. The team behind them on the oddsboard is the Virginia Cavaliers, who sit at 13-4 SU in conference play and are listed at +245.
College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports. You have a huge field of potential teams to start with. With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall. College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime. This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.
The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2021 NCAA Tournament
Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship BracketOdds To Win 2019 Ncaa Men’s Basketball Championship2021 March Madness Futures Odds
Projected Final Four: Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Illinois
Projected Championship Matchup: Gonzaga vs Baylor
Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: GonzagaTeam2019-20 RecordConferenceScoring MarginOddsChangeNCAA TournamentGonzaga3-0West Coast13.3+400+5009.86%Baylor4-0Big 1227.0+850+505.19%Iowa6-0Big Ten32.0+900-1504.93%Illinois5-2Big Ten21.3+1000+4004.48%Villanova5-1Big East10.2+1200-5003.79%West Virginia6-1Big 128.3+1600None2.90%Kansas6-1Big 1210.5+1800-6002.59%Michigan State6-0Big Ten12.5+1800-2002.59%Texas Tech6-1Big 1223.7+1800+4002.59%Virginia3-1ACC16.5+1800-6002.59%Creighton4-2Big East15.2+2000-2002.35%Tennessee3-0SEC19.7+2000+2002.35%Texas5-1Big 1213.2+2000+40002.35%Duke2-2ACC2.8+2500-11001.90%Florida State4-0ACC13.8+2500-7001.90%Houston4-0AAC18.8+2500+10001.90%Indiana4-2Big Ten13.0+2800+12001.70%Kentucky1-4SEC0.6+2800-17001.70%North Carolina4-2ACC6.8+2800-10001.70%Wisconsin5-1Big Ten17.8+2800-12001.70%Ohio State5-0Big Ten16.2+3300-3001.45%San Diego State5-0MWC12.8+3300-13001.45%Arizona State4-2Pac-122.8+4000None1.20%Connecticut3-0AAC14.0+4000+10001.20%Florida3-1SEC15.2+4000-10001.20%LSU4-1SEC23.0+4000None1.20%Michigan6-0Big Ten14.8+4000-15001.20%Oregon4-1Pac-129.2+4000-12001.20%Alabama4-2SEC5.0+5000New0.97%Arizona5-0Pac-1219.6+5000None0.97%Arkansas6-0SEC33.8+5000+30000.97%Louisville4-0ACC19.8+5000-17000.97%Richmond4-1A-105.8+5000+30000.97%St. Louis5-0A-1027.2+5000New0.97%UCLA5-1Pac-1212.7+5000-20000.97%Maryland4-2Big Ten11.5+6600-16000.74%Purdue4-2Big Ten10.0+6600+14000.74%Rutgers5-0Big Ten16.4+6600-6000.74%SMU4-0AAC24.0+6600+84000.74%Stanford3-2Pac-128.2+6600-16000.74%USC4-1Pac-1216.0+6600-6000.74%Auburn4-2SEC0.5+8000-40000.61%Clemson5-1ACC12.8+8000New0.61%Colorado3-1Pac-1217.0+8000+20000.61%Dayton3-1A-102.5+8000None0.61%Memphis4-3AAC11.4+8000-5000.61%Minnesota6-1Big Ten9.1+8000+20000.61%Xavier7-0Big East17.1+8000New0.61%Butler1-0Big East4.0+10000None0.49%BYU6-2West Coast6.3+10000-20000.49%Marquette5-2Big East10.1+10000None0.49%Miami FL3-1ACC10.0+10000-20000.49%Missouri5-0SEC11.4+10000New0.49%NC State3-0ACC33.3+10000New0.49%Northern Iowa1-4MVC-7.2+10000New0.49%Oklahoma3-1Big 1213.0+10000None0.49%Penn State3-2Big Ten6.8+10000None0.49%Providence4-2Big East4.2+10000New0.49%South Carolina1-2SEC-5.0+10000+50000.49%Syracuse4-1ACC18.8+10000+25000.49%VCU6-2A-1014.2+10000+50000.49%Virginia Tech5-1ACC5.7+10000+50000.49%Western Kentucky5-2C-USA2.4+10000New0.49%Boise State4-1MWC9.0+12500New0.39%Cincinnati2-2AAC0.0+12500+75000.39%Georgia Tech2-3ACC0.4+12500+125000.39%Notre Dame2-2ACC-1.5+12500+125000.39%Pittsburgh4-1ACC9.4+12500+125000.39%Seton Hall4-3Big East6.1+12500-92000.39%St. Mary’s CA7-1West Coast10.6+12500New0.39%Temple0-0AAC—+12500+125000.39%UNLV1-4MWC-9.2+12500+25000.39%Washington1-4Pac-12-6.8+12500New0.39%Wichita State2-2AAC-1.0+12500New0.39%Utah3-1Pac-125.0+15000New0.33%Utah State2-3MWC-8.0+15000New0.33%Georgetown3-3Big East2.3+20000-50000.25%Mississippi State3-3SEC3.5+20000+50000.25%Rhode Island3-4A-102.4+20000-50000.25%Davidson3-3A-105.2+25000-100000.20%DePaul0-0Big East—+25000New0.20%
Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.
We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column). It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500). The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update. If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update. Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.
Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.
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